Russia invasion of Ukraine - Sanctions on Russia and consequences | Ipse by Context

Chris Devonshire-Ellis

Inserted 1 year ago

“When you look at Russia, it has the first, second and third highest reserves globally of practically everything. From energy to diamonds, to fresh water, to rare earths and other minerals, it's an extremely rich country. And despite its current estrangement from the West, the Kremlin was far from being geopolitically isolated. Russia has some powerful friends, such as China, India, and Iran, and some increasingly powerful acquaintances, such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and much of Africa. On balance, therefore, I suspect that Russia will prevail.”

Aljazeera

Founder of Dezan Shira & Associates, a pan-Asian investment consulting firm

29 Aug 2022 9 3

Alexei Firsov

Inserted 1 year ago

“So far, there are no signs that the drop in living standards could lead to unrest. The living standards decline has not reached the point where attitudes towards reality start to change significantly and the fridge clearly begins to beat the TV.”

Reuters

Founder of social studies think tank Platforma

24 Aug 2022 2 2

Vladimir Putin

Inserted 1 year ago

“Sanctions restrictions on Russia cause much more damage to those countries that impose them. Further use of sanctions may lead to even more severe - without exaggeration, even catastrophic - consequences on the global energy market. We know that the Europeans are trying to replace Russian energy resources. However, we expect the result of such actions to be an increase in gas prices on the spot market and an increase in the cost of energy resources for end consumers. We should feel confident in ourselves but you should see the risks - the risks are still there.”

Aljazeera

President of Russia

08 Jul 2022 5 3

Elvira Nabiullina

Inserted 1 year ago

“Thanks to these factors, inflation is falling faster than we expected. This allows us to lower the key rate today without creating new pro-inflationary risks. We allow for the possibility of further easing of the key rate at upcoming meetings. The first months (since February) were a time for tactical decisions: we had to counteract the first sanctions shock. We managed to protect financial stability and not allow an inflation spiral to unfold. But this, of course, absolutely does not mean that we can breathe easily.”

Reuters

Head of the Central Bank of Russia

26 May 2022 3 3

Vitaly Savelyev

Inserted 1 year ago

“The sanctions imposed on Russia as of today have practically broken all logistics in our country. And we have to look for new logistics corridors.”

Ukrinform

Minister of Transport of the Russian Federation

22 May 2022 2 2

Sinan Ulgen

Inserted 2 years ago

“The Akkuyu project is the first in the global nuclear industry based on a build-own-operate model. It means Russia is responsible for all capital expenses during the construction phase. With sanctions, this model is at risk because it is more difficult for Russia to allocate funding. There is now more pressure on its international reserves - half of them have been frozen - so whether Russia can continue to spend these amounts for a reactor in Turkey is unclear. Russia is likely to pressure Turkey to find local companies to take up to a 49 percent stake in Akkuyu.”

Aljazeera

Director of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies

16 May 2022 5 5

Lauri Myllyvirta

Inserted 2 years ago

“The sky-high fossil fuel prices and continued imports into Europe have provided the Kremlin with a major windfall and undermined the effect of economic sanctions.”

Cbc

Lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air in Helsinki

04 May 2022 4 3

Art Woo

Inserted 2 years ago

“All things considered, it's holding up better than initially expected. The Russian economy is still projected to fall into a recession later this year. But so far, it has managed to blunt the harshest economic consequences of the Western sanctions.”

Cbc

Senior economist with the Bank of Montreal

04 May 2022 3 5

Elina Ribakova

Inserted 2 years ago

“In Moscow it may seem that nothing [bad] is happening. But if you are in the Kaluga region or near St. Petersburg, where there are car assembly plants, everyone there knows that in a couple of months they will be out of work.”

Rferl

Deputy chief economist at the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF)

27 Apr 2022 5 4

Pierluigi Paganini

Inserted 2 years ago

“The consequences of an oil embargo would likely cause a recession in Europe. While the US, the EU, the UK, and other countries have sanctioned Russia, Russian export revenues since the beginning of the invasion is not decreasing. Even if European governments agreed to stop Russian coal imports starting in August, it is not enough. The prices for oil would increase on a global scale. Using alternative oil provisions from the Middle East and Africa would take time, which in turn would force European countries to adopt an energy policy characterised by austerity.”

Aljazeera

Cybersecurity and intelligence expert in Italy

27 Apr 2022 8 5

Aleksey Kushch

Inserted 2 years ago

“Russia has enough resources for six months. By the year's end, its gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by up to 15 percent, and then two to three years of adaptation will follow. In the end, they will have an autarky like that in Iran.”

Aljazeera

Kyiv-based analyst

19 Apr 2022 4 1

Elvira Nabiullina

Inserted 2 years ago

“Sanctions had mainly affected the financial market but now they will begin to increasingly affect the economy. The main problems will be associated with restrictions on imports and logistics of foreign trade, and in the future with restrictions on exports. Russian manufacturers will need to search for new partners, logistics, or switch to the production of products of previous generations. Exporters would need to look for new partners and logistical arrangements and all this will take time.”

Aljazeera

Head of the Central Bank of Russia

18 Apr 2022 7 3

Edward Fishman

Inserted 2 years ago

“The U.S. and Europe I do believe deserve a lot of credit for the solidarity and resolve they've shown on sanctions. The sanctions are clearly impacting Russia's economy dramatically. However, I think that we've stalled out a bit. There's a lot of room for escalation.”

Politico

Former Obama State Department official who played a central role in crafting sanctions after Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea

31 Mar 2022 2 4

Guido Chamorro

Inserted 2 years ago

“The thing about defaults is that they are never clear-cut and this is no exception. There is a grace period, so we are not really going to know whether this is a default or not until April 15. Anything could happen in the grace period.”

Reuters

Pictet emerging market portfolio manager

16 Mar 2022 3 3

Anton Siluanov

Inserted 2 years ago

“Is that a default? ... From Russia's point of view, we are fulfilling our obligations. If we see complications with executing the order then on Tuesday we will prepare a relevant transfer order in the rouble equivalent. Russia has the necessary funds to service its external obligations and may also use a yuan part of its gold and forex reserves if there is such a need. The freezing of the central bank and the government's foreign currency accounts can be seen as a desire by several Western countries to organise an artificial default.”

Reuters

Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation

14 Mar 2022 6 3

Dmitry Peskov

Inserted 2 years ago

“Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences, they will be minimised. This is absolutely unprecedented. The economic war that has started against our country has never taken place before. So it is very hard to forecast anything.”

Reuters

Kremlin spokesman

10 Mar 2022 2 3

Vladimir Gimpelson

Inserted 2 years ago

“The Russian economy will rapidly lose human capital, and the rate of its outflow may be higher than in the 1990s. It's still too early to estimate just how many jobs Russia can expect to lose. The ability to mitigate the economic shockwaves left by Western companies' departure will depend on the Kremlin's ability to substitute lost jobs with new ones, and the speed at which the Kremlin can replace partners in the West with ones in the East.”

Themoscowtimes

Head of the Moscow Higher School of Economics’ center for labor market studies

08 Mar 2022 3 4

Sash Tusa

Inserted 2 years ago

“It will get progressively harder for Russians to travel for two reasons. One is that Russian airspace is closed to Western aircraft. In addition, international travel becomes extremely difficult as support for Western-built airline aircraft in Russia is withdrawn.”

Aljazeera

Aerospace and defence analyst for Agency Partners LLP in London

08 Mar 2022 5 3

Richard Aboulafia

Inserted 2 years ago

“Russia will be the world's largest country with a developed economy and an aviation industry no better than North Korea's. Aviation sanctions are easy to enforce. Airlines can't fly. They will have to completely redo their aircraft plans, which at the moment, are built on Western technology.”

Aljazeera

Managing director of Michigan-based AeroDynamic Advisory

08 Mar 2022 3 2

Yeap Jun Rong

Inserted 2 years ago

“The Ukraine-Russia conflict will continue to dominate market sentiments and no signs of conflict resolution thus far may likely put a cap on risk sentiments into the new week. It should be clear by now that economic sanctions will not deter any aggression from the Russians, but will serve more as a punitive measure at the expense of implication on global economic growth. Elevated oil prices may pose a threat to firms' margins and consumer spending outlook.”

Aljazeera

Market strategist at IG in Singapore

07 Mar 2022 5 3

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Russia invasion of Ukraine - Sanctions on Russia and consequences

“So far, there are no signs that the drop in living standards could lead to unrest. The living standards decline has not reached the point where attitudes towards reality start to change significantly and the fridge clearly begins to beat the TV.”

“The sanctions imposed on Russia as of today have practically broken all logistics in our country. And we have to look for new logistics corridors.”

“The sky-high fossil fuel prices and continued imports into Europe have provided the Kremlin with a major windfall and undermined the effect of economic sanctions.”

“All things considered, it's holding up better than initially expected. The Russian economy is still projected to fall into a recession later this year. But so far, it has managed to blunt the harshest economic consequences of the Western sanctions.”

“In Moscow it may seem that nothing [bad] is happening. But if you are in the Kaluga region or near St. Petersburg, where there are car assembly plants, everyone there knows that in a couple of months they will be out of work.”

“Russia has enough resources for six months. By the year's end, its gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by up to 15 percent, and then two to three years of adaptation will follow. In the end, they will have an autarky like that in Iran.”

“The U.S. and Europe I do believe deserve a lot of credit for the solidarity and resolve they've shown on sanctions. The sanctions are clearly impacting Russia's economy dramatically. However, I think that we've stalled out a bit. There's a lot of room for escalation.”

“The thing about defaults is that they are never clear-cut and this is no exception. There is a grace period, so we are not really going to know whether this is a default or not until April 15. Anything could happen in the grace period.”

“Our economy is experiencing a shock impact now and there are negative consequences, they will be minimised. This is absolutely unprecedented. The economic war that has started against our country has never taken place before. So it is very hard to forecast anything.”

“It will get progressively harder for Russians to travel for two reasons. One is that Russian airspace is closed to Western aircraft. In addition, international travel becomes extremely difficult as support for Western-built airline aircraft in Russia is withdrawn.”

“Russia will be the world's largest country with a developed economy and an aviation industry no better than North Korea's. Aviation sanctions are easy to enforce. Airlines can't fly. They will have to completely redo their aircraft plans, which at the moment, are built on Western technology.”

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