“Gains in Kursk could boost Ukrainian morale and change the battlefield narrative at a critical time in the war. It would also be a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin's image as a strong man defending Russia. Ukraine's chances of success in Kursk are higher than in the heavily fortified eastern front. Russia not only has most of its forces deployed in eastern Ukraine but also extensive defensive lines. An offensive [in eastern Ukraine] would be a slow grind likely with limited success and heavy casualties, and it would weaken Ukrainian defenses in the area. The Ukrainian units are already wearing down really badly in eastern Ukraine and I don't think Zelenskiy wants to hasten that. I do not expect Ukraine's offensive in Kursk to last long considering the manpower constraints. In some ways, I see this as the opening salvo in the peace negotiations, getting Ukraine into as strong a position as it can be, and giving more to trade back to Russia at the negotiating table.”
Professor of military history at Cornell University in the United States