IPSE'S AUTHORS LAST 24h
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IPSEs IN THE LAST 24H
  • Jimmy Rushton
    Jimmy Rushton “Shoigu's replacement with a (relatively experienced and apparently competent) economist [Andrei Belousov] pretty clearly signals Putin believes victory in Ukraine will come via outproducing (and outlasting) Ukraine and her Western allies. He's preparing for many more years of war.” 17 hours ago
  • Konstantin Sonin
    Konstantin Sonin “Things are not going according to Putin's plan, but he will endlessly rotate the same small group of loyalists. Putin has always feared to bring new people to the positions of authority - even in the best of times, they must have been nobodies with no own perspectives. Toward the end of his rule, even more so.” 17 hours ago
  • Mark Galeotti
    Mark Galeotti “With an economist taking over the Defence Ministry, and the old minister taking up a policy and advisory role, the technocrats are in the ascendant. The goal though is not peace, but a more efficient war. As Putin digs in for the long term, with the 'special military operation' now being the central organising principle of his regime, he knows he needs technocrats to keep his war machine going.” 17 hours ago
  • Jeff Hawn
    Jeff Hawn “This indicates that the Kremlin is not seeking an exit from Ukraine, but once to extend their ability to endure the conflict as long as possible. Russia is very limited [on] how much they can increase scale, due to economic deficiencies. However, they can maintain a certain level of attritional warfare. And are likely hoping to do that longer than Ukraine can.” 17 hours ago
  • Dmitry Peskov
    Dmitry Peskov “Today, the winner on the battlefield is the one who is more open to innovation, more open to implementation as quickly as possible. It is natural that at the current stage the president [Vladimir Putin] decided that the Ministry of Defence should be headed by a civilian [Andrei Belousov].” 17 hours ago
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Protests in Kazakhstan

Page with all the IPSEs stored in the archive related to the Context Protests in Kazakhstan.
The IPSEs are presented in chronological order based on when the IPSEs have been pronounced.

“At this point, we would encourage Tokayev to make use of this moment to speak the truth about what happened over the past week. Questions will continue to be asked about the official version of events, which at this point does not seem entirely credible and lewd to unnecessary speculations. An independent, international inquiry into the events may become necessary.”

author
Senior policy adviser with the rights watchdog Norwegian Helsinki Committee
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“I would not say that it is a clash between Tokayev and Nazarbayev. Sure, there have been tensions, but I think it is more a clash between Tokayev and those who support him versus the pro-Nazarbayev elite whose position has been diminished as Nazarbayev's influence weakens. They have seen Tokayev's strengthening position as a threat to their interests. But we have to remember that apart from that, there were peaceful protests which had nothing to do with this power struggle and which are rooted in socioeconomic problems, social dissatisfaction and corruption. Clearly, the situation has strengthened Tokayev.”

author
Almaty-based Kazakh human rights activist, director of the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law
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“[CSTO] had managed to prevent the undermining of the foundations of the state, the complete degradation of the internal situation in Kazakhstan, and block terrorists, criminals, looters and other criminal elements. Of course, we understand the events in Kazakhstan are not the first and far from the last attempt to interfere in the internal affairs of our states from the outside. The measures taken by the CSTO have clearly shown we will not allow the situation to be rocked at home.”

author
President of Russia
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“Under the guise of spontaneous protests, a wave of unrest broke out … It became clear that the main goal was to undermine the constitutional order and to seize power. We are talking about an attempted coup d'etat... The main blow was directed against Almaty. The fall of this city would have paved the way for a takeover of the densely populated south and then the whole country. Then they planned to seize the capital [Nur-Sultan].”

author
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“One can sort of understand that he wanted to free up his own security forces to put down what he says are essentially terrorist attacks and an attempted coup - which is fairly ridiculous as there are definitely two different groups, most of whom are peaceful protesters in Kazakhstan. But the interesting thing about this is the Collective Security Treaty Organisation that Russia leads has never actually deployed troops in any of its member states when there's been unrest. Its charter states it is not supposed to interfere unless these member states face an external threat - which Tokayev provided by calling these terrorists 'international terrorists' and suggesting that they were trained outside the country.”

author
Central Asia correspondent for Radio Free Europe and an expert on the region
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“We are waiting for the body count to rise based on the scale of the fighting, the violence, and the shooting - heavy machine gun fire and explosions that went on for hours and hours during January 5 and 6. To add to that, the so-called anti-terrorism operation is still continuing across the country - so a very big operation going on with the Kazakh government attempting to take back control of the situation.”

author
Al Jazeera’s journalist reporting from Tbilisi
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“The public announcement of Masimov's arrest suggests that [President Kassym-Jomart] Tokayev is moving extremely boldly - in a way that most people did not anticipate at all - to dismantle the remnants of the very powerful Nazarbayev grouping. His arrest is a sign that not only have there been dismissals as a result of these protests, but that actually, the allies and family of Nursultan Nazarbayev are also being moved out of power.”

author
Head of analysis at Prism Political Risk Management
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“The militants have not laid down their arms, they continue to commit crimes or are preparing for them. Whoever does not surrender will be destroyed. I have given the order to law enforcement agencies and the army to shoot to kill, without warning.”

author
President of Kazakhstan
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“President Tokayev has taken decisive and effective actions at a critical moment, quickly calming the situation, which has shown his sense of responsibility as a statesman, and demonstrated a highly responsible attitude to the country and the people. China firmly opposes any force undermining Kazakhstan's stability, threatening the country's security, and sabotaging the peaceful life of the Kazakh people.”

author
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“The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a heavy blow to Central Asian countries, and the economy in Kazakhstan also suffered from the breaking-off of trade and flights. In recent years, protests by the younger generation incited by nationalism have increased, shedding light on domestic problems and also explaining why the protests spread quickly to many cities. Who would benefit most from the riots? Probably the US and the West. Kazakhstan shares borders with both China and Russia, and the Biden administration's strategic purpose is to contain China and Russia. When Kazakhstan falls into chaos, the stability of the whole region would be affected.”

author
Research fellow at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
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“For now, this is less an armed intervention than a police operation. But if it drags on, consequences for Russia could mount up. I don't think Russia had any choice but to intervene. Given how violent the unrest was and how unstable the region is, this seems like it was the only option. But it's important that this is a short, time-limited operation and that we don't get sucked in.”

author
Head of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a Kremlin-linked think tank
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“This unrest is on an entirely different scale - encompassing the whole country - and shows the extent to which previous stability was superficial, and founded on a division of the spoils by a small, unaccountable elite. The Kazakh protests are not just a warning to the Nazarbayev clan that created a patronal, hydrocarbons-based dictatorship. Other dictators across the region with similar patronal systems will be watching warily, not least [Russian President] Vladimir Putin.”

author
Lecturer at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom
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“For some, it's a popular revolt, and for some - an excellent chance to restore the USSR at the expense of frightened dictators who betray their country to save their skin and what's left of their power. There are no common [organisational] structures and obvious leaders, so far this is protest of workers from main resource industries, apparently, small businessmen and youngsters.”

author
Research Fellow at Bremen University
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“Today I appealed to the heads of CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) states to assist Kazakhstan in overcoming this terrorist threat. In fact, this is no longer a threat. It is undermining the integrity of the state. Terrorist groups are currently rampaging across the country. They are seizing buildings and infrastructure and, most importantly, are seizing the premises where small arms are located.”

author
President of Kazakhstan
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“We ask for all Kazakhstanis to respect and defend constitutional institutions, human rights, and media freedom, including through the restoration of internet service. We urge all parties to find a peaceful resolution of the state of emergency.”

author
Spokesperson for the United States Department of State
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“The authorities are trying everything to calm things down, with a mix of promises and threats, but so far it's not working. There will be imitations of dialogue but essentially the regime will respond with force, because they have no other tools.”

author
Almaty-based political analyst
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“The formal excuse for the protests is the lifting of the cap on LPG, in a country where salaries are pretty modest by world standards. But on the other hand we are seeing increasingly political demands being added by the protesters, to the point where one of their main demands - the ouster of the government - has been met but it does not satisfy them any longer. This is a very scary situation … and officials are now smelling real trouble.”

author
Director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative
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