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“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade or so. A military attack by Russia is highly unlikely in the short term partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russian buildup of forces was matched in Europe. If we are not prepared, the likelihood (of a military Russian attack) would be much higher than without any preparation.”
13 Feb 2024
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